Forecasting tomato prices on markets in the Republic of Serbia using the ARIMA model

Petrović, Mladen and Janković Šoja, Svjetlana and Savić, Bojan and Tomić, Vedran and Cvijanović, Vojin and Perović, Nataša (2022) Forecasting tomato prices on markets in the Republic of Serbia using the ARIMA model. In: Proceedings of the XIII International Scientific Agriculture Symposium “Agrosym 2022”. University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture, East Sarajevo, pp. 1271-1276. ISBN 978-99976-987-3-5

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Abstract

Vegetable production is a highly intensive and profitable branch of agriculture, which can have a significant effect on the development of the agricultural sector. In the Republic of Serbia, tomatoes are grown in open fields and in different forms of protected areas (plastic and glass greenhouses). Tomatoes are grown worldwide on over 5,000,000 ha, and in the Republic of Serbia, according to the data retrieved from the National Statistical Office (RZS), tomatoes are grown on about 8.000 ha, being the most commonly grown vegetable crop (together with potatoes and peppers), with an average yield of almost 15 t/ha and total production of 111,639 metric tons (FAOSTAT). Tomato prices differ over quarters in a year, and those discrepancies are not small. Tomato prices are therefore twice/twice and a half times lower in summer than in winter, primarily due to the way of production, based on which it can be concluded that the production season significantly affects the price of this agricultural commodity. Apart from the way and technology of production, the price is greatly affected by the market, and in this case by the import from the neighboring countries. The goal of this paper is the tomato prices’ forecast by quarters of 2021, based on the prices from the markets in the Republic of Serbia in the period 2014-2020, recorded and kept within the Market Information System of Serbian Agriculture (STIPS), and by using the ARIMA modelling. Moreover, this analyzes can be used to project the prices for other agricultural commodities and such analyzes can help greatly in current global crisis caused not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by the current war situation in Ukraine.

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