Evaluating and forecasting livestock production trends in Croatia: A sectoral analysis based on ARIMA modeling.

Dokić, Dragan and Nedeljković, Miroslav and Gantner, Vesna (2025) Evaluating and forecasting livestock production trends in Croatia: A sectoral analysis based on ARIMA modeling. In: Proceedings of the 15th International Symposium "Modern Trends in Livestock Production". Institute for Animal Husbandry, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia, pp. 241-250. ISBN 978-86-82431-82-4

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Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for the supply of live livestock in the Republic of Croatia for the period 2024–2029, based on the analysis of historical data. Livestock production has long been a strategically important sector in Croatia, supported by a strong tradition and a notable presence of indigenous breeds. Nevertheless, despite these advantages, the supply of live livestock per production unit has demonstrated persistent negative trends. The study applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to analyze time series data from 2019 to 2023 in order to identify structural patterns and forecast future supply dynamics. Supplementary statistical and econometric methods are employed to examine variation, autocorrelation, and the significance of fluctuations within the series. The analysis also highlights that the cost of production, as a key non-price determinant, plays a decisive role in shaping livestock supply trends. Findings indicate a regressive trend across most livestock sectors, emphasizing the need for targeted policy measures to stabilize and enhance future production.

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