Forecasting tomato cultivation area and average yields in The Republic of Serbia

Petrović, Mladen and Cvijanović, Vojin and Radišić, Robert (2025) Forecasting tomato cultivation area and average yields in The Republic of Serbia. In: VI international scientific conference Sustainable agriculture and rural development, December, 2025, Belgrade: book of abstracts. Institute of agricultural economics, Belgrade, p. 69. ISBN 978-86-6269-148-4

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Abstract

In recent years, tomato cultivation area and yields in the Republic of Serbia have shown fluctuations influenced by changes in market demand, prices, available resources, and agricultural policy measures. As one of the economically most significant vegetable crops, tomato production requires careful planning based on reliable projections of future developments. This paper applies time series analysis using the ARIMA model to forecast the dynamics of tomato cultivation area and average yields in the Republic of Serbia for the next three years (2026–2028), based on historical data from the past twenty years. The aim of the research is to estimate future developments in production area and yields, in order to provide an analytical basis for production planning and agricultural policymaking. The results of the ARIMA modeling indicate expected changes in the extent of tomato cultivation and average yields in the coming years, which may support informed decision-making by producers, buyers, and policymakers. The obtained forecasts confirm the importance of applying quantitative methods in the analysis of vegetable production and in planning its development pathways.

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