Forecasting of plum production in Republic of Srpska

Nedeljković, Miroslav (2021) Forecasting of plum production in Republic of Srpska. In: X International Symposium on Agricultural Science - Agrores ,27-29 May 2021, Trebinje, Bosnia and Herzegovina. University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, Trebinje, pp. 210-219. ISBN 978-99938-93-70-7

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Abstract

In this paper, a quantitative research method was used in order to forecast the trend of plum production parameters movement in Republic of Srpska for the period from 2020 to 2024. For this purpose, a quadratic trend model, as the most appropriate for the analyzed twenty-year data series (2000-2019), was used. The results of the research show that in the five-year forecast period not only the growth of fruit-bearing plum trees can be expected, but also a continuing decline of production and yield. Such results can serve as a way of considering the adoption of some of the strategic decisions in this production.

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