Forecasting the Price Indicators of Significant Industrial Plants in the Republic of Srpska

Nedeljković, Miroslav (2020) Forecasting the Price Indicators of Significant Industrial Plants in the Republic of Srpska. In: Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in Terms of the Republic of Serbia Strategic Goals Realization within the Danube Region: Science and Practice in the Service of Agriculture - thematic proceedings. Institute of Agricultural Economics, Belgrade, pp. 405-419. ISBN 978-86-6269-081-4

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Abstract

Using the ARIMA model, the paper forecasts five-year price and price parity movements of the most represented industrial plants in the Republic of Srpska (soybeans, rapeseed and tobacco). The main goal of the paper was to analyse changes in price and their parities, as well as the future tendency of price indicators of observed crops. The results show that a constant increase in soybean prices over the upcoming five-year period can be expected, where the ratio of soybean prices to wheat will be very favourable. For rapeseed, price fluctuations in the prediction period can be expected, while its parity will be very favourable, as is the case with soybeans. As with soybeans, tobacco can also be expected to have a constant price increase over the five-year forecast period, while tobacco/ wheat parity will continue to decline in the coming period.

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